Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center

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A Multinomial Logit Model of Pedestrian-Vehicle Crash Severity in North Carolina

Product Type

Journal Article


Zhen Chen and Wei (David) Fan



Full citation

Chen, Z. & Fan, W. (2019). A Multinomial Logit Model of Pedestrian-Vehicle Crash Severity in North Carolina. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology, 8(1), pp 43-52.


This article develops a multinomial logit (MNL) model to investigate and identify significant contributing factors that determine the pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in North Carolina, United States. Pedestrian-vehicle crash data from Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) database from 2005 to 2012 are collected and used in this study. Crash injury severities are classified into five categories: no injury (property damage only), injury class 3 (possible injury), injury class 2 (evident injury), injury class 1 (disabling injury), and fatality. A preferred multinomial logit model is developed using SAS PROC MDC procedure and marginal effects are also calculated. The results show that the factors that significantly increase the probability of fatalities and disabling injuries include: driver’s physical condition (bad condition), vehicle type (motorcycle and heavy truck), pedestrian age (26–65 and over 65), weekend, light condition (dawn, dusk and dark), roadway characteristics (curve), roadway surface (water), roadway class (NC route) and speed limit (35–50-mph and above 50-mph). The developed model and analysis results provide insights on developing effective countermeasures to reduce vehicle-pedestrian crash severities and improve traffic system safety performance.

Available From

International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology

Link To Journal Article

Link not available.


Multinomial logit model
Pedestrian-vehicle crashes

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HSIS Summaries

HSIS Summary Reports are two to eight pages in length and include a brief description of the issue addressed, data used, methodology applied, significant results, and practical implications.

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Research Reports

A variety of research studies have been performed using data from HSIS. Many of the final reports prepared are now available electronically.

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Technical Summaries

Research reports are often summarized in executive summaries, technical briefs, or other abbreviated formats. Included here are those road safety summaries that involved research using HSIS data.

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Safety Analysis Tools

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